EA - The Charity Entrepreneurship top ideas new charity prediction market by CE

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The Charity Entrepreneurship top ideas new charity prediction market, published by CE on May 17, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.TL;DR: Charity Entrepreneurship would like your help in our research process. We are running a prediction market on the top 10 ideas across two cause areas. A total of $2000 in prizes is available for prediction accuracy and comment quality. Check it out at:The CE prediction marketFor our upcoming (winter 2024) Incubation Program, we are researching two cause areas. Within global development we are looking into mass media interventions –social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media (e.g., radio advertising, TV shows, text messages, etc.) aiming to improve human well-being. Within animal welfare we are looking into preventive (or long-run) interventions for farmed animals – the new charities will not just positively affect farmed animals in the short term, but will have a long-run effect on preventing animal suffering in farms 35 years from now.We have narrowed down to the most promising top 10 ideas for each of these cause areas. The Charity Entrepreneurship research team will be doing ~80-hour research projects on as many of these ideas as we can between now and July, carefully examining the evidence and crucial considerations that could either make or break the idea. At the end of this we will aim to recommend two-three ideas for each cause area.This is where you come in. We want to get your views and predictions on our top ideas within each cause area. We have put our top idea list onto the Manifold Markets prediction market platform, and you are invited to join a collective exercise to assess these ideas and input into our decision making.You can do this by reading the list of top ideas (below) for one or both of the cause areas, and then going to the Manifold Market platform and:Make a prediction about how likely you think it is that a specific idea will be recommended by us at the end of our research.Leave comments on each idea with your thoughts or views on why it might or might not be recommended, or why it might or might not be a good idea.As well as having the great benefit of helping our research, we have $2000 in prizes to give away (generously donated by Manifold Markets).$1,000 for comment prizes. We will give $100 to each person who gives one of the top 10 arguments or pieces of information that changes our minds the most regarding our selection decisions.$1,000 for forecasting prizes. We will grant prizes to the individuals who do the best at predicting which of the ideas we end up selecting.More details on these prizes are available on the page at Manifold.The market is open until June 5, 2023 for predictions and comments. This gives the CE research team time to read and integrate comments and insights into our research before our early July deadline.To participate, read the list below and go to: to make predictions and leave comments.Summary of ideas under considerationMass MediaBy ‘mass media’ interventions we refer to social and behavior change communication campaigns delivered through mass media, aiming to improve human well-being.1. Using mobile technologies (mHealth) to encourage women to attend antenatal clinics and/or give birth at a healthcare facilityAcross much of sub-Saharan Africa, only about 55% of women make the recommended four+ antenatal care visits, and only 60% give birth at a healthcare facility. This organization would encourage greater healthcare utilization and achieve lower maternal and neonatal mortality by scaling up evidence-based mHealth interventions, such as one-way text messages or two-way SMS/WhatsApp communications. These messages would aim to address common concerns about professional healthcare, as well as reminding women not to mis...