EA - Report: Food Security in Argentina in the event of an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS) by JorgeTorresC

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Report: Food Security in Argentina in the event of an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS), published by JorgeTorresC on April 27, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.In order to prepare in case of an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS), it is necessary to understand the threats and vulnerabilities of the agri-food system and the current ecosystem of risk management in Argentina.Through research, modeling, and interviews, the RCG team, in collaboration with ALLFED, has produced a report titled "Food Security in Argentina in the event of an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario (ASRS)". This strategic proposal offers a comprehensive overview of risk management in Argentina, the current state of risk, and presents eight main recommendations divided into two categories: communication and supplies, and the production and redirection of food in the event of an ASRS. Additionally, it highlights priority actions for implementing the proposed solutions.Download full reportIf you are interested in attending our research findings presentation on May 8, 2023 at 19:00 (GMT+1) sign up at the following linkExecutive SummaryAbrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenarios (ASRS) result from events that eject particulate matter into the upper atmosphere, reflecting and absorbing sunlight that would otherwise reach the Earth's surface. This decrease in sunlight causes a drop in global temperatures and precipitation, with devastating consequences for agriculture. Potential causes of an ASRS include large volcanic eruptions, nuclear winter, and asteroid or comet impact (ALLFED , 2022). The impact of such events is likely to last for several years, even a decade, with global implications for agriculture and food security.According to certain researchers, in a severe nuclear winter scenario such as the one described, an estimated 75% of the world's population could starve to death (Xia et al., 2022). If the atmosphere were to collect 150 million tons of soot, it would cause a decrease in temperature ranging between 7ºC and 15ºC. This temperature drop would be accompanied by a reduction in sunlight and precipitation, leading to a collapse in caloric production. Specifically, caloric production would fall to 10%-20% of its current value.Some regions of the world appear to have better conditions for surviving an abrupt sunlight reduction scenario (ASRS). These include island nations like New Zealand or Australia (Boyd & Wilson, 2022) and continental countries such as Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay (Xia et al., 2022). After evaluating different countries in Latin America, we realized that Argentina is one of the world's leading producers and exporters of food, especially grains and oilseeds. Therefore, in the event of an ASRS, Argentina would play a crucial role in the distribution and food exportation, even if its production decreased during the scenario. It would still have greater food availability than other countries that would be more severely affected.Adapting the country's food systems quickly and effectively would make the difference between a national famine situation and producing sufficient, varied, and nutritious food with a surplus to export, thus avoiding a regional humanitarian crisis and a foreign refugee crisis.Considering the importance of Argentina's geographical location, it is essential for the government to actively participate in the development of contingency plans aimed at addressing possible threats in the region, and the creation of an interdepartmental working group is recommended to investigate the threat posed by an ASRS and how to deal with it. The strategic initiatives aim to contribute to the strengthening of preparedness and specific recommendations for its location. This report consists of 8 main recommendations, divided into communication and supp...