Becoming a superforecaster, decision science for better human predictions - Pavel Atanasov-the data scientist show#036

Pavel is a decision scientist and co-founder at Pytho, using decision science to measure and improve human judgment & prediction. He has a phd in psychology and decision science from the University of Pennsylvania, focusing on crowd predictions. If you like the show subscribe to the channel and give us a 5-star review. Subscribe to Daliana's newsletter on www.dalianaliu.com/ for more on data science. Daliana's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dalianaliu/ Daliana's Twitter: https://twitter.com/DalianaLiu Pavel's twitter: https://twitter.com/PavelDAtanasov Superforecasting book, based on the Good Judgment Project: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718 Blogs about forecasting:   Vox's Future Perfect series: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect Astral Codex Ten: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/ Highlights:  (00:01:10) how he got into decision science  (00:14:38) what makes someone a super forecaster  (00:16:20) three elements of becoming a super forecaster  (00:24:37) how to effectively update our opinions  00:30:05 how he designed experiments to find out what was a better system  (00:48:27) why humans sometimes are better than algorithm  (01:14:50) how to collect data and information better  (01:33:25) why you should quit  (01:42:30) the future of decision science