385: AI Snake Oil

Sayash Kapoor (Princeton) discusses the incoherence of precise p(doom) predictions and the pervasiveness of AI “snake oil.” Check out his and Arvind Narayanan’s new book, AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference. Topics include: - What’s a prediction, really? - p(doom): your guess is as good as anyone’s - Freakishly chaotic creatures (us, that is) - AI can’t predict the impact of AI - Gaming AI with invisible ink - Life is luck—let’s act like it - Superintelligence (us, that is) - The bitter lesson - AI danger: sweat the small stuff Links: AI Snake Oil: What Artificial Intelligence Can Do, What It Can’t, and How to Tell the Difference (https://tinyurl.com/4v3byma9) AI Existential Risk Probabilities Are Too Unreliable to Inform Policy (https://tinyurl.com/fdrcu5s6) AI Snake Oil (Substack) (https://tinyurl.com/2chwfrka)