29 // Thinking in probabilities with Taimur Abdaal

Probabilistic modeling is useful for answering all kinds of questions, from assessing financial risk to making engineering time estimates. Yet spreadsheets are poor at this job, which is why Taimur and his colleagues are building Casual. Taimur talks with Mark and Adam about ranges as an intuitive way to estimate; the usefulness of Monte Carlo simulations; and the role of math in dating cave paintings. Discuss this episode in the Muse community Follow @MuseAppHQ on Twitter Show notes Taimur Abdaal Casual Not Overthinking Airtable Drake‘s equation line of best fit “not even wrong” Flatland Monte Carlo simulation R closed-form solution RoboCup Slack (management book) queueing theory The Principles of Product Development Flow tail risk expected value gambler’s fallacy distribution shapes e.g. bell curve fan chart Samo Burja of Bismark Analysis meta-analysis preregistered studies confidence interval false positive, false negative onboarding episode A/A testing carcinization combinatorics two-tailed test