Mania, Panics and Crashes

Speculation excesses are referred too as mania and revulsion from these excesses take the form of crisis, crashes, or panic which are historically common. The excess speculation builds as investor seize new opportunities for profits and are overdone. Hyman Minsky describes these new opportunities as the result of displacement. Displacement are events leading up to a crisis, such as, outbreak or end of war, bumper harvest or crop failure, widespread adoption of an invention, or some political event. Displacement must be a significant size. Displacement brings opportunities for profit and increased demand causes price to rise. Banks artificially increase supply without proportional increases in demand by expanding the money supply that demand would have generated. The money supply expansion is notoriously unstable. Feedback fuels Euphoria for price increase; the Euphoria turns investment from really valuable products to delusional ones. Boom is characterized as rising interest rates, as Banks threaten discredit and hedge against the speculation by raising rates; trading velocity increases and the velocity of circulation and turnover ratios rise; and stock prices increases. Boom is fed by expansion caused by bank credit; credit increases the money supply and destabilizes the investment.