“Survey of 2,778 AI authors: six parts in pictures” by Katja_Grace

Crossposted from AI Impacts blog The 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI is out, this time with 2778 participants from six top AI venues (up from about 700 and two in the 2022 ESPAI), making it probably the biggest ever survey of AI researchers. People answered in October, an eventful fourteen months after the 2022 survey, which had mostly identical questions for comparison. Here is the preprint. And here are six interesting bits in pictures (with figure numbers matching paper, for ease of learning more): 1. Expected time to human-level performance dropped 1-5 decades since the 2022 survey. As always, our questions about ‘high level machine intelligence’ (HLMI) and ‘full automation of labor’ (FAOL) got very different answers, and individuals disagreed a lot (shown as thin lines below), but the aggregate forecasts for both sets of questions dropped sharply. For context, between 2016 and 2022 surveys, the forecast [...] --- First published: January 6th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/M9MSe4KHNv4HNf44f/survey-of-2-778-ai-authors-six-parts-in-pictures --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.