“Vacuum Decay: Expert Survey Results” by Jess_Riedel, JordanStone, Youssef Saleh, Darryl Wright

TLDR: Vacuum decay is a hypothesized scenario where the universe's apparent vacuum state could transition to a lower-energy state. According to current physics models, if such a transition occurred in any location — whether through rare natural fluctuations or by artificial means — a region of "true vacuum" would propagate outward at near light speed, destroying the accessible universe as we know it by deeply altering the effective physical laws and releasing vast amounts of energy. Understanding whether advanced technology could potentially trigger such a transition has implications for existential risk assessment and the long-term trajectory of technological civilisations. This post presents results from what we believe to be the first structured survey of physics experts (N=20) regarding both the theoretical possibility of vacuum decay and its potential technological inducibility. The survey revealed substantial disagreement among respondents. According to participants, resolving these questions primarily depends on developing theories that [...] ---Outline:(01:25) Background(01:28) What is Vacuum Decay?(05:34) Why does vacuum decay matter?(06:59) Approach(09:14) Respondents(10:58) Results(11:10) Is the apparent vacuum metastable?(17:45) Can we induce vacuum decay?(21:51) What are the drivers of disagreement?(23:58) Limitations(25:17) Summary(25:59) AcknowledgementsThe original text contained 2 images which were described by AI. --- First published: March 13th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CFv82Xt2kuvvjNvP8/vacuum-decay-expert-survey-results-1 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.