“The ambiguous effect of full automation on GDP growth” by trammell

This is one of two posts I’m putting up today on how little economic theory alone has to say about the effects full automation would have on familiar economic variables. The other is “The ambiguous effect of full automation on wages”. Introduction A lot of us are wondering what impact AI will have on global GDP growth (or would have if fully aligned and minimally regulated, in a world not destroyed by conflict). People have occasionally asked for my opinion on the question ever since I first wrote a literature review on the question five years ago—in fact before that, which is one of the reasons I wrote it! My answer has changed over time in many ways, but the outline remains similar. It seems much more likely than not to me that advanced enough AI would eventually result in GWP growth above the fastest rates of sustained [...] ---Outline:(00:20) Introduction(02:10) Example(05:23) Discussion(10:59) More on the motivationThe original text contained 8 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: February 7th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xFajkcDeEwCZkwrMw/the-ambiguous-effect-of-full-automation-on-gdp-growth --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.