“Published report: Pathways to short TAI timelines” by Zershaaneh Qureshi

This is a link post. Hi everyone! I have just published a report with Convergence Analysis exploring how transformative AI (TAI) could be developed within the next ten years. It's called Pathways to short TAI timelines (pdf version; Google Doc version). In the report, I examine the debates over compute scaling and recursive improvement as mechanisms for rapid capabilities progress, distill the core elements of these debates under seven distinct scenarios of rapid progress, and ultimately build a case for the plausibility of TAI being developed by 2035. It's a long read, with the pdf version weighing in at 140 pages. So, in this forum post, I provide excerpts which summarise the text at two different levels of granularity: a short summary (~2 min read) and a detailed overview (~15 min read). For those who are interested in reading further, specific sections of the full-length report (Google Doc version) are [...] ---Outline:(01:11) Short summary of the report (~2 min read)(04:07) Detailed overview of the report (~15 min read)(04:13) Background(06:18) Two key mechanisms for fast AI capabilities progress(08:06) Compute scaling(08:52) Short timelines via compute scaling(11:19) Counterarguments to short timelines via compute scaling(15:59) Recursive improvement(17:29) Short timelines via recursive improvement(22:18) Counterarguments to short timelines via recursive improvement(26:09) Seven scenarios with short TAI timelines(33:55) Conclusion(35:11) AcknowledgementsThe original text contained 14 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 5 images which were described by AI. --- First published: February 20th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Aex6kac5KPbsQ7K3N/published-report-pathways-to-short-tai-timelines --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.