“Longtermist implications of aliens Space-Faring Civilizations - Introduction” by Maxime_Riche

Over the last few years, progress has been made in estimating the density of intelligent life in the universe (e.g., Olson 2015, Sandberg 2018, Hanson 2021). Bits of progress have been made in using these results to update longtermist macrostrategy, but these results are partial and stopped short of their potential (Finnveden 2019, Olson 2020, Olson 2021, Cook 2022). Namely, this work stopped early in its tracks, at best, only hinting at the meaty part of the implications and leaving half of the work almost untouched: comparing the expected utility produced by different Space-Faring Civilizations (SFCs). In this post, we hint at the possible macrostrategic implications of these works: A possible switch for the longtermist community from targeting decreasing X-Risks (including increasing P(Alignment)[1]), to increasing P(Alignment | Humanity creates an SFC). Sequence: This post is part 1 of a sequence investigating the longtermist implications of alien Space-Faring Civilizations. Each [...] ---Outline:(01:17) Summary(02:52) The Civ-Saturation Hypothesis(03:59) Hinting at longtermist macrostrategic implications(08:29) The Civ-Similarity Hypothesis(10:58) The Existence Neutrality Hypothesis(12:12) ContextThe original text contained 38 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. --- First published: February 21st, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8dGYgxSZXPoGhg6dj/longtermist-implications-of-aliens-space-faring --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.