“CBA 301: Practical Advice” by Richard Bruns

Over the years, I have learned many things that are rarely taught about doing cost-benefit or welfare analysis. Here are a few things that I often end up repeating when I mentor individuals or teams working on these kinds of projects: A Point Estimate is Always Wrong For any purpose other than an example calculation, never use a point estimate. Always do all math in terms of confidence intervals. All inputs should be ranges or probability distributions, and all outputs should be presented as confidence intervals. Do not start with a point estimate and add the uncertainty later. From day one, do everything in ranges. Think in terms of foggy clouds of uncertainty. Imagine yourself shrinking the range of uncertainty as you gather more data. This Google Sheets Template allows you to easily set up Monte Carlo estimations that turn probabilistic inputs into confidence-interval outputs. Use Google Sheets I [...] ---Outline:(00:20) A Point Estimate is Always Wrong(01:04) Use Google Sheets(04:19) One Individual, One Event(05:53) Minimum Viable Product and Iterate(07:27) Deliver What the Customer Needs(10:05) Ruthlessly Simplify Literature(11:11) Do Longform NPV(14:17) Breadth Beats Rigor(14:51) Use Multiple Specifications(16:48) Become or Hire a Journalist(20:55) Time Costs Usually Dominate(21:56) Analyses are Worthless, but Analyzing is Everything.(23:47) Ask for Help--- First published: February 7th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/wsHnorrCFNffNJQmS/cba-301-practical-advice --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.